As a former state chair of the GOP and a player on the national political scene, Karen Floyd has experience in politics that few in South Carolina can match. This primary season, she’s been sharing her expertise with Patch.
Last week, Floyd, publisher of the Palladian View, provided a high-level view of the race to Patch readers. This week, Floyd talks specifics and looks back at the South Carolina primary.
So far, the GOP presidential race has had one turning point after another. And on the brink of Super Tuesday, the possibility exists for there to be yet another.
The conventional wisdom--though not necessarily Floyd--says that if former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney performs well enough tomorrow, he could all but lock up the nomination. Of course, that’s what the conventional wisdom said in January when Romney had a double digit lead the weekend before South Carolina voters went to the polls.
But then the debates happened. While some have blamed Romney’s evasive answers about his taxes for his downfall here, Floyd believes Former Speaker Newt Gingrich capitalized on the opening.
“Gingrich was handed an issue by the media (about his personal life) and he effectively turned it into a criticism of them,” she said.
Floyd also felt that Gov. Nikki Haley’s endorsement did not hurt Romney as some suggested.
“(Gov. Romney) had good crowds at his events before she endorsed, but they grew when (Haley) started appearing with him,” Floyd said. “The vote here turned because of the debates.”
Floyd thinks the debates have been the over-riding factor in the race as a whole, citing the struggles of Rick Perry as evidence of their impact. “He was the Golden Boy for a while, but he never recovered from his debate performance,” she said.
Money will, of course, be a big consideration in who ultimately wins. And not just because it buys more advertisements. Floyd thinks some of Santorum recent slip-ups in speeches and at the debate in Arizona are due to fatigue. “When you’re pushing as hard as he is for as long as he has, it’s not a matter of being sloppy. He’s just tired.”
Floyd pointed out that Santorum’s traveling and eating habits are probably a lot different from the other candidates. “He has to switch planes and switch cars eat on the go all the time. Whereas if you have your own plane, travel becomes less of chore. Compared to the others, travel produces more wear and tear on Santorum.”
Her advice to Santorum is to fight through the fatigue. “He needs to smile more and let people see who he is. One on one he’s great,” Floyd said. “In the debates and interviews sometimes he gets off track.”
Her recommendation to Romney is somewhat similar. Stay on message. “He needs to use the ground game he spent so much time putting together. When he goes unscripted he creates a news cycle that has nothing to do with his message, “ she said.
Regardless of who may or may not be the front-runner at this stage, Floyd believes it will be a long slog. “The winner has to get to 1,144 delegates and we’re not even a third of the way there yet,” she said. “The only candidate who’s given any wiggle room about dropping out has been Gingrich if he doesn’t do well in Georgia.”
