I asked a regular attendee to CPAC and she said, "because he has slid pretty far left in the last year."  If he does not right himself, he might be a strong candidate for the nomination as the Republican Party does not seem to welcome gentlemen and ladies of the right to carry the standard for them. Frankly, in my opinion as a long time supporter of the Party and as a political scientist, the Party has made many errors in choosing its nominees. When it has a nominee perceived to be of a genuine conservative/libertarian bent, we win by safe margins. When people are not so sure, the elections are close OR we lose.