Which bite of the elephant will yield a winning strategy for a 2012 White House bid?
The fight for women in politics can be broken down to four elements—audience, message, timing and messenger. This framework will decide the right message to garner the support of women who constitute 46% of the workforce and 52% of the vote.
MESSAGE AND AUDIENCE
The complexity of women voters will ultimately determine the message "niche". Both the Republicans and Democrats understand the import of demographic profiles, which correlates message with women by age, race and socioeconomic factors.
Though Democrats historically fare better with women, in the recent Gallup/USA Today poll of 12 swing states, (released April 1, 2012) women's identification with the Democratic Party increased to a high of 41% versus 24% Republican, and President Obama held a 19% advantage over Mitt Romney among these same women—a notably larger gap than usual. This shift in poll trajectory lies largely with the Democrats who have successfully framed social-value messaging while Republicans are still deciding their presidential nominee.
One of the most successful and key political controversies in this political cycle involves a proposed federal rule that would require employers, including religious-affiliated institutions, to cover birth control as part of their health care benefits. Contraception as one of health care inequities against women rather than government infringing upon religious freedom is the perceived "message". Democrats clearly prevailed in winning the war of messaging. As borne out in multiple polls, the "contraception” message not "religious freedom” message had significant traction with single women as well as women 49 and under.
One demographic (with limited polling data) which is up for grabs, is the universal, married and working woman. This profile transcends traditional segmentation and crosses over socio -economic stratus. No matter what explanation is provided, in the name of work/life balance, many women in this category do not fully and consistently “lean into” politics in the same fashion as men. At some point many women stop demanding ideological politics because the “realities of life” carry a series of other demands.
These women have tangible, practical concerns which revolve around areas of personal attachment and responsibility such as their children and grandchildren. Measuring politics in "real" quantifiable ways is paramount. One messaging opportunity is parlaying these concerns into real-life examples, like “the debt incurred by the next generation totaling approximately thirty thousand dollars per child at birth”. In the 2010 elections this was a successful message for congressional wins and should not be overlooked.
Amongst this group, the economy ranks the highest in their wheelhouse of concerns. Rightfully so, as a Pew Report recently found "women represent the only group for whom employment growth has lagged behind population growth in the recovery." Intuitively, this demographic understands the schism and can be mobilized if the right message is dealt.
TIMING AND MESSENGER
While President Obama is able to go to the public - on the offense - by defining social value issues in linear niche markets, the prospective Republican nominee continues to "self-define" through a battery of "Republican credentialings" amongst the conservative Republican base, in order to win the Republican primary. This matter of "timing" gives the Democrats a strategic advantage—for now.
Once the GOP nominee is selected, messaging for women must be laser beam-focused. Because the President is not perceived as having delivered upon his campaign promises "of a better economy and future", every word issued from the Republicans should revolve around President Obama's broken promises and specifically, underperformances in the economy, jobs and areas that distinctively affect daily living. All messaging must be fact-based with supporting, real data. Republican Women in this demographic are leery of conjecture and in 2010 their ire and frustrations were captured by the Tea Party movement.
The President, meanwhile will do well to continue to create wedge issues in niches that resonate. A successful tactic used to date by the current Administration has been selectively choosing issues that mobilize and are divisive; an offensive strategy that has served him well.
AND...
Finally, John Sculley, former President of Pepsi and CEO of Apple adroitly said, "No great marketing decisions have ever been made on qualitative data". What the GOP candidates and President Obama are doing right and wrong on attracting women changes constantly. Numbers show us that if the Democrats continue to drive wedge issues in niche, female-centric markets, they will continue to dominate the female vote. Republicans need to move quickly and decisively. Once the Republican nominee is selected, the message must be to expose unfulfilled campaign pledges by the current Administration. Both Republicans and Democrats would do well to listen to Scully's advice.
Politics is the war of moving numbers and the flexibility to message to women depends largely on understanding their complexities and real concerns.
